Iran’s Tiananmen Square

Twenty years after the massacre at Tiananmen, the situation in Iran could soon find itself on the same course. The Republic of Iran, this week appears to be in the midst of quite the civil uproar. The streets of Tehran are on fire. The Iranian people have a crazed dictator, rigging elections, beating protesters, restricting media communications, and making his mission in life the acquisition of nuclear arms; and yet the pro-reformers, who have quite obviously been screwed over, demonstrate on the streets in their thousands, blissfully unafraid. Conflictingly over here in the UK, we have an unelected Prime Minister, whose cabinet fell apart, who helped create a financial mess, who allowed Lloyds Group to employ Andy Hornby for £60,000 a month despite the fact that he lost over £10bn at his previous job, and despite Lloyds group making thousands more jobless. A Prime Minister who the entire Country doesn’t like. And yet, even our Labour MPs backed down from a political fight to oust him, through fear. It’s quite the difference. Perhaps we really have given up on politics entirely.

It is without doubt that Iran needs reform. It cannot survive as it is. It is estimated that by the end of the year, Iran’s fiscal deficit would rise to 18% of GDP. And given that Iran relies heavily on oil revenue, if and when oil prices start to fall, Iran will struggle. That isn’t to say that the Country is completely in ruins. Healthcare in Iran has improved rapidly in the past 20 years. Life expectancy is well above the World average, and above Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Turkmenistan, in the region. It is just a pity, they have a crazed dictator running the show.

The 2009 Election was never going to be free and fair. The members of the Guardian Council along with the Supreme Leader do not want to see Iran in the hands of a reformist urging less State intervention in the media and closer ties with the U.S. And no strict fundamentalist Muslim wants to see their Country fall largely under American influence. For them, this election was between Islam and America. Mousavi never stood a chance. The outcome, showed quite dubiously, that President Ahmadinejad had secured 62.63% of the vote whilst the reformist, Mir-Hossein Mousavi secured just 33.75%. According to secret Iranian polls conducted before the election, by the Revolutionary Guards, showed that Mousavi was set to take the election by quite the landslide, of up to 10 million more votes than Ahmadinejad. Between a ten and twenty point lead. The result came back, and was actually the other way around; Ahmadinejad secured more than 10 million more votes. That’s quite the swing! Not only that, but the President of Iran managed to win Mousavi’s home town of Tabriz, with 57% of the vote, which was so unlikely, one wonders why the Ahmadinejad team wasn’t more subtle in it’s quite obvious election rigging.

Iran has gone further, by arresting leading civil rights activists since Friday’s disputed election, activists who have all called for a complete recount. They have cracked down further on media outlets who suggest election fraud. A camera man for Italian media outlet, RAI was beaten in the Iranian capital on Saturday, and had his equipment confiscated. Iranian State Media, have condemned the demonstrations as the acts of “thugs” and “illegal“. Iranian State newspapers have been told not to report on the violence conducted by State officials against protesters. Text messaging services and internet use have been cracked down to prevent much communication getting to and from the Capital. Over 100 important opposition leaders have been arrested since the protests began, simply for showing opposition to the result. Protesters then gathered outside a military base at Azadi Square, in Tehran, and were seemingly fired on in what appears to be the attempted suppression of the right to protest.

Within moments of the polls closing, The Ministry of Interior announced that of the 25 million votes counted so far, 16 million had been cast for Ahmadinejad. Highly unlikely, given that the highest voter turnout in a very long time, anywhere in the World, had occurred primarily as a protest against Ahmadinejad. Within hours, the Interior had announced that if anyone attempted to approach the Ministry, the police had orders to shoot. Quite the response, given that they’d just announced that the Country absolutely loves Ahmadinejad. The Ministry of Interior is the body that controls how voting is conducted and how the votes are counted. It is also primarily under the control of Ahmadinejad, and The Supreme Leader.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whilst originally claiming that Ahmadinejad’s victory was “divine“, has now called for the Guardian Council to investigate allegations of fraud. The outcome, doubtless, will favour Ahmadinejad. Given that the Supreme Leader was a leading figure in the Islamic revolution, he’s unlikely to favour a reformer like Mousavi, who once claimed he wanted to reduce the influence of the Islamic Clerics in Iran, and supported closer ties with America. It would be quite the political and influential suicide for Khamenei.

I echo the thoughts of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, when he said of the election result; “If Ahmadinejad has really made progress since the last election and if he really represents two thirds of the electorate… why has this violence erupted?”
I cannot imagine, if a candidate is as popular as the results appear to show, that full scale mass protests would ensue. George W Bush was the most unpopular President in history. If he were allowed to stand for a third term, a landslide victory over Obama, would be the Western equivilant to what is currently happening in Iran.

To sum up, Iran has blocked media communication, restricted web and text message services, banned anyone from coming within feet of the Ministry of Interior, put armed guards on the streets with orders to kill, arrested opponents, and released an incredibly illogical election result, and yet they’re still claiming it was free and fair. Islamic Fundamentalist Dictatorship, under the mask of democracy.